"Year-on-year growth will not be as strong as in previous years due to increased competition with domestic supply and a high volume of imported beef in stock last marketing year", the USDA office said.
The bureau projects China will import 3.9 million tons of beef this year and 3.95 million tons in 2025.
The USDA’s Beijing office forecast for Chinese beef production in 2025 is slightly lower than its 2024 estimate due to flat demand and lower finished cattle supplies. It says higher beef production in the first half of 2024 “is attributable to panic slaughter by industry members who began to see price declines in 2023 with little near-term likelihood of the market recovering.” Output is projected to fall from 7.8 million tons this year to 7.78 million in 2025.
Beef consumption in China in 2025 is projected to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous years.
"Beef consumption has room for growth, as per capita consumption remains much lower than in major beef-consuming countries and consumers have been increasingly exposed to beef on menus and in retail stores", the USDA office said.
In 2024, cattle producers in China slaughtered more cattle as prices fell below break-even levels. "With beef prices in major supplying countries declining, importers reportedly placed more orders with countries that had access to the China market. The result was that supply growth outpaced demand, leading to falling beef prices and higher inventories that will likely carry over into 2025", the USDA Beijing office projects.
