The latest short-term forecasts from the European Commission reflect a scenario of lower availability of beef in the European Union during 2026, resulting from the continued structural adjustment of livestock stock.
Net beef production will reach 6.25 million tons, representing a year-on-year drop of 2% , a steeper decline than initially anticipated due to the continued reduction of the European cattle herd.
The report also anticipates a 1% decrease in per capita consumption , which will fall to 9.7 kilos per inhabitant , consolidating a downward trend sustained over the last two decades.
At the same time, imports will grow by 12% , to 469,000 tons , driven mainly by Brazil, which accounts for 30% of EU purchases, followed by the United Kingdom with 26%.
However, starting in September 2026, the European Union will apply restrictions to imports of Brazilian beef due to issues related to antimicrobial resistance.
The move could alter the trade landscape and open up opportunities for other suppliers, especially the UK.
Conversely, European exports will fall by 12% to 440,000 tons , limited by lower domestic supply. As a result, total beef availability in the EU will be 6.4 million tons , 3% less than in 2025.
