A UK government risk assessment has concluded that the overall annual likelihood of African swine fever entering Great Britain from European Union member states through human-mediated routes is medium, with high uncertainty, according to an executive summary published by the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs.
The assessment, updated in June 2023 and published on Jan. 20, 2026, found the annual likelihood of exposure of a susceptible animal in Great Britain to be low, with medium uncertainty. The potential consequences of an incursion were assessed as major, with moderate uncertainty, due to possible welfare, trade, social and economic impacts.
African swine fever is a highly pathogenic viral disease affecting domestic pigs and Eurasian wild boar. The virus has been detected in multiple European countries in recent years, including new or renewed outbreaks in Italy, the Czech Republic, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia between January 2022 and June 2023.
The assessment identified personal imports of products of animal origin as the highest-risk entry pathway, with a medium likelihood defined as the virus potentially being introduced regularly over the next year. Risks linked to commercial trade in live animals and animal products, illegal imports, animal feed, bedding and crops were considered very low. Risks from vehicles and passengers transporting contaminated materials were rated low, while introduction through vectors was considered negligible.
Exposure risks were assessed across commercial pig farms with good biosecurity, backyard and smallholder farms with poorer biosecurity, and free-living swine. The report said backyard and smallholder farms with poor biosecurity, along with free-living swine, were the most at risk.
Defra said uncertainty remains around the origin and quantity of personal food imports, biosecurity standards, the seasonal survival of the virus, illegal swill feeding, and the potential scale and duration of any outbreak in Great Britain.
